Monte Carlo Trading Simulator

Monte Carlo simulation runs hundreds of randomised trade sequences using your strategy's statistics (win rate, R:R, risk per trade) to show the full range of possible outcomes. Instead of one expected equity curve, you see 100 different paths your account could realistically take — from best case to worst case. It's used by professional quant traders and fund managers to stress-test strategies before deploying real capital.

Because of variance — the natural randomness in trade outcomes. Even a profitable strategy with 55% win rate will sometimes produce 8-10 consecutive losses purely by chance. Monte Carlo reveals this reality: your strategy might end up +40% or barely break even after 100 trades, even with a genuine edge. The median curve (green) shows the most likely path, while the spread of curves shows the realistic range of outcomes.

Enable the Prop Firm Rules overlays — set your max drawdown (e.g. 10%) and profit target (e.g. 8%). The simulator then shows how many curves hit the target without breaching the drawdown, giving you your real probability of passing. If less than 50% of curves pass, you need to adjust your risk per trade, increase your win rate, or improve your R:R before attempting the challenge.

The simulator tracks the maximum peak-to-trough decline for each equity curve across all trades. The worst-case max drawdown shown in the stats is the highest drawdown seen across all simulated curves — this represents the worst scenario your strategy could realistically face given your statistics. Your risk per trade is the primary lever to control maximum drawdown.

100 simulations gives a reliable visual picture and is fast. 500 simulations gives more statistically precise probability estimates (e.g. exact pass rate). For final strategy validation before a real prop firm challenge, run 500. For quick visual checks of a strategy change, 100 is sufficient.