Risk of Ruin Calculator

Assess whether your trading strategy is sustainable. Enter your win rate, R:R ratio, and risk per trade to calculate expectancy, trading edge, and probability of account ruin.

enter strategy parameters
Win Rate (%)
Risk:Reward (R)
Risk per Trade (%)
Strategy Analysis (click to copy)

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Risk of Ruin?
Risk of Ruin (RoR) is the probability that a trader will lose their entire trading account before reaching their profit goal. A strategy with positive expectancy can still have a high risk of ruin if position sizes are too large.
What is expectancy in trading?
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). A positive expectancy means the strategy makes money on average per trade. Example: 50% win rate with 1:2 R:R = (0.5 × 2%) − (0.5 × 1%) = 0.5% profit per trade on average.
What is a safe Risk of Ruin percentage?
Professional traders aim for a Risk of Ruin below 5%. Below 1% is considered excellent. Above 20% means your strategy or position sizing needs urgent review. The fastest way to reduce RoR is to reduce your risk per trade percentage.
How do I reduce my Risk of Ruin?
Three ways: 1) Increase win rate through better trade selection. 2) Increase R:R ratio by letting winners run and cutting losses short. 3) Reduce position size (risk % per trade). Reducing risk from 2% to 1% per trade dramatically lowers RoR.