Number of wins
Number of losses
Average win ($)
Average loss ($)
Trades to project
Result (click to copy)
Reading Your Numbers
Win rate alone doesn't tell you if you're profitable
A 70% win rate with small wins and large losses can still lose money overall — expectancy (which weighs both win rate and average win/loss size) is the number that actually matters.
Profit Factor above 1.0 is the minimum bar, not the goal
A Profit Factor of exactly 1.0 means you're breaking even before costs — spreads, commissions, and slippage will push a borderline strategy into a real loss. Aim comfortably above 1.5.
Use real numbers from a trading log, not estimates
This calculator is only as accurate as what you enter — pull actual wins, losses, and dollar amounts from your trade history rather than guessing from memory.
How to Use the Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator
- Enter number of wins — total winning trades in your sample period. Use at least 50 trades for statistical meaning, ideally 100+.
- Enter number of losses — total losing trades in the same period. Include partial losses and break-even trades as losses for conservative accuracy.
- Enter average win amount — the average profit per winning trade in dollars. Calculate this from your trading journal or broker statement.
- Enter average loss amount — the average loss per losing trade in dollars (enter as a positive number). Include commissions and spread in this figure.
- Set trades to project — how many future trades to project profitability over. Use 30 for challenge planning, 100 for quarterly projections.
- Analyse the results — focus on expectancy per trade and profit factor. These two numbers tell you everything about whether your strategy has a genuine edge.
📊 Minimum sample size: Below 50 trades, your statistics are dominated by luck rather than skill. A 70% win rate over 20 trades means almost nothing statistically. With 200 trades, a 65% win rate is a highly reliable signal of genuine edge.
Understanding Trading Statistics
📈 Win Rate
The percentage of trades that are profitable. Win rate alone tells you nothing — a 70% win rate with 1:0.5 R:R loses money. Always evaluate win rate alongside R:R and expectancy.
⚖️ Risk:Reward Ratio
Average winning trade size divided by average losing trade size. A ratio of 1.5 means wins are 50% larger than losses on average. Higher R:R compensates for lower win rates.
💡 Expectancy
Average profit or loss per trade: (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). The single most important number for evaluating a trading strategy. Must be positive for long-term profitability.
📊 Profit Factor
Total gross profit divided by total gross loss. Above 1.0 = profitable. 1.5 = good. 2.0+ = excellent. Most consistently profitable strategies have profit factors between 1.4 and 2.5.
🎯 Break-Even Win Rate
The minimum win rate needed at your R:R to break even: 1÷(1+RR). At 1:1.5 RR, break-even WR = 40%. At 1:1 RR, break-even WR = 50%. Knowing this floor is essential.
🔮 Projected Profit
Expected total profit over N trades = Expectancy × N trades. At $37.50 expectancy over 100 trades = $3,750 expected. Actual results will vary around this expectation.
Improving Your Trading Statistics
Diagnose before optimising
Before trying to improve your win rate or R:R, diagnose which is the weak link. If your win rate is 65% but profit factor is only 1.1, your average win is too small relative to your average loss — you are cutting winners short. If win rate is 35% with 1:3 R:R and profit factor is 1.05, your win rate is too low for the R:R — you are entering too early or with poor setups.
The expectancy journal
The most powerful improvement tool is a trade journal that calculates running expectancy after every 10 trades. This shows whether strategy changes are improving or worsening your edge in near real-time, rather than waiting for a 100-trade sample to evaluate.
Separating setup types
Many traders have a mixed strategy where some setup types are highly profitable and others drag down overall statistics. Calculate expectancy separately for each setup type — trading session, day of week, news vs non-news days. Often, eliminating 2–3 underperforming setup types dramatically improves overall statistics without requiring any fundamental strategy change.
🔢 The goal: A profit factor above 1.5 and positive expectancy of at least $20–$30 per trade (at standard lot sizes) before attempting any prop firm challenge. These thresholds give enough cushion for the natural variance of live trading to still produce profitability.
The Core Formulas
Win Rate = Wins ÷ Total Trades. Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). Profit Factor = (Wins × Avg Win) ÷ (Losses × Avg Loss).
Worked example
55 wins, 45 losses, $120 average win, $80 average loss: Win Rate = 55/100 = 55%. Expectancy = (0.55 × 120) − (0.45 × 80) = 66 − 36 = +$30/trade. Profit Factor = (55 × 120) ÷ (45 × 80) = 6,600 ÷ 3,600 = 1.83x — a solid, comfortably-profitable strategy by the profit-factor guide below.
Avoid These Mistakes
Entering average loss as a negative number
Enter average loss as a positive dollar amount (the size of the loss), not a negative number — the calculator already treats it as money lost.
Judging a strategy on too few trades
A 100% win rate over 5 trades isn't a real edge, it's a small sample — Profit Factor and Expectancy need a reasonable trade count (ideally 30+) before you can trust them.
Ignoring costs in your average win/loss figures
If your logged win/loss amounts don't already include spread, commission, and slippage, your real expectancy is lower than what this calculator shows — use post-cost figures for an honest picture.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss). It tells you the average profit or loss per trade. A positive expectancy means you're profitable on average. Example: 55% WR, $150 avg win, 45% LR, $100 avg loss → expectancy = $82.50 − $45 = $37.50 per trade.
What is profit factor?
Profit Factor = Total Gross Profit ÷ Total Gross Loss. Above 1.0 means profitable. 1.5+ is good. 2.0+ is strong. Most consistently profitable professional traders have profit factors between 1.5 and 2.5. Higher isn't always better — it may mean missing good trades.
How many trades do I need to judge my edge?
You need at least 100 trades for meaningful statistics, ideally 200+. Below 50 trades, your results are largely dominated by luck. The more trades in your sample, the more confident you can be that your win rate and expectancy reflect your true edge rather than random variance.
What is a good win rate?
Win rate alone means nothing without knowing your R:R. A 40% win rate with 1:2 RR is more profitable than a 60% win rate with 1:0.8 RR. What matters is expectancy and profit factor. Many professional traders win only 40-50% of trades but have large average wins relative to losses.
References
📊 Your broker's trade history export
Most brokers and platforms can export a full trade history with exact win/loss counts and dollar amounts — use this as your source instead of manual estimates for the most accurate expectancy figure.